New analysis of consumer credit data by The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers reveals a worsening utility debt crisis affecting nearly all corners of the country. In November 2025, in “Fueling Debt: How Rising Utility Costs Are Overwhelming American Families,” we documented how increasing energy prices and rising overdue balances are pushing households deeper into debt. Our updated analysis1 presented here confirms that this trend has only intensified during President Trump’s first year since returning to office, driving utility costs and overdue debt to new highs and increasing the mounting financial pressures plaguing working families across the United States.

Specifically, our analysis shows:

  • Energy bills have increased three times faster than the rate of inflation while Trump has been president. The national average monthly utility bill reached $280 in early 2026, an 12 percent increase since the end of 2024, just before the second Trump administration took office.
  • Typical monthly bills now exceed $280 in eighteen states across the country, with average costs rising by more than 20 percent in ten states since December 2024. Residents in Montana and New Hampshire have seen their average utility bills spike by 52 percent and 31 percent, respectively, since Trump returned to office.
  • Rising energy costs are causing more American households to fall behind. Since Trump took office, the national average overdue utility bill has increased by more than 8 percent since the end of 2024. In March of 2026, the national average overdue utility balance climbed to $817.
  • Black households and Americans with lower credit scores are most likely to struggle with utility debt. Financial strain is heavily concentrated among lower credit tiers, with 18 percent of deep subprime households carrying overdue utility balances. Energy debt also falls disproportionately along racial lines: Black households carry overdue utility debt at three times the rate of white households.
  • Middle-class households are not immune to the growing financial pressure of rising energy costs.2 Financial pressure from rising energy costs is climbing up the credit spectrum into moderate-credit consumers. Since December 2024, average overdue balances for subprime and near-prime households grew at roughly double the rate of deep subprime consumers (14 percent and 13 percent, compared to 7 percent).

These findings are only part of the picture, as households across the country increasingly struggle with affording their basic need for energy to keep the lights on, cook dinner, and heat or cool their homes—with households in some regions of the country carrying significantly heavier utility debt burdens. 

The Trump administration’s policies are actively contributing to and worsening the energy cost crisis. The effects of the Iran war will only further increase household utility costs, while runaway data center expansions account for 63 percent of electricity generation capacity costs in the nation’s largest power market.3 Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act repealed clean-energy tax credits that would have lowered household electricity bills and aid programs to help low-income families afford their energy bills.

Utility Debt Continues to Climb

In March 2026, the national average monthly energy utility4 bill reached $280. (See Figure 1.) Over the course of President Trump’s second term, average monthly energy utility bills have risen by 12 percent, which is roughly three times the overall rate of inflation during the same period.5 To make matters worse, families faced a brutal winter heating season, where higher fuel prices and unseasonably cold temperatures increased projected home heating costs by 11 percent to a record average of over $1,000.

These cost spikes were intensified by extreme weather events such as Winter Storm Fern in late January 2026, which caused spot prices of natural gas to be an astounding thirty to ninety times the average price of gas in 2025. At the same time, this analysis—which looks at utility prices through March 2026—likely undersells the true pain of families’ current energy burdens and the magnitude of price hikes under President Trump, as it doesn’t account for the substantial increases in the cost of gasoline, diesel, and other forms of energy in recent months due to the war in Iran. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s policies are worsening the financial pressure on working families rather than relieving it. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, accelerated the repeal of the clean-energy tax credits that analysts had projected would lower household electricity bills. And the administration has systematically shrunk the federal safety net built to help low-income households meet their home energy needs: total Low Income Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) funding declined from $6.1 billion in 2023 to $4 billion in 2026, leaving only 17 percent of eligible families with assistance.

This broad upward momentum in energy prices is also being exacerbated by the rapid expansion of AI data centers across the country. Dozens of utilities received interconnection requests for at least 700 gigawatts of power connection development in 2025—nearly 1.5 times the total electricity consumed by the entire United States in all of 2023. For example, in the Mid-Atlantic region served by the PJM Interconnection, electric generation capacity prices for the current delivery year (June 2026 through May 2027) are more than eleven times higher than two years prior.6 Utility companies are passing on the soaring costs directly to consumers through higher standard rates. The strain is already landing on the bills of households near these AI data facilities. In Manassas, Virginia, one longtime resident saw his monthly electricity bill jump from roughly $100 to $281 in a single billing cycle as nearby data-center demand surged. 

FIGURE 1

The growing utility price pressure is geographically widespread. As of March 2026, typical monthly utility bills in eighteen states topped the $280 nationwide average. (See Figure 2A.) While the highest absolute costs remain concentrated in the Northeast due to regional climate and fuel types, heavy seasonal cooling demands also keep average bills elevated in states such as California ($321), Arizona ($302), and Florida ($283). Other states with higher than national average costs include Alaska ($304), Arkansas ($285), South Carolina ($285), and West Virginia ($283). (See Figure 2B.)

FIGURES 2A & 2B

Shorter-term shifts since the beginning of the second Trump administration show that average monthly bills increased by more than 20 percent in ten states. In Montana, average residential utility bills surged by 52 percent since the end of 2024, and in New Hampshire, households saw a 31 percent bill increase over the same period. Additionally, average monthly bill balances increased by more than 25 percent in Arkansas, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Conversely, the average monthly utility bill declined in only four states since December 2024, but long-term costs remain severely elevated across the board, even in these states. For instance, while Nevada’s and Utah’s average bills are down 15 percent and 6 percent over this same period, they remain 23 percent and 15 percent higher than their March 2022 baselines, respectively.

Where Utility Debt Is Most Severe

Because utilities are an essential service that households cannot do without, rising costs can translate directly into growing debt. As of March 2026, our data indicates that nearly one in twenty households—equivalent to roughly 14 million Americans—carry utility debt so severe that it was sent or soon will be sent to collections. (See Figure 3A.) This financial strain is heavily concentrated in parts of the South, Appalachia, and the Midwest, where severe delinquency rates reach 8.9 percent in Texas (the highest in the nation), 7.9 percent in Kentucky, and 7.7 percent in North Carolina—nearly double the national average. (See Figure 3B.)

FIGURES 3A & 3B

Importantly, this one-in-twenty statistic is actually a massive underestimate of true hardship. Coverage for utility bills in the consumer credit reporting data used for our estimates is narrow and selective: only about 3 percent of individuals with active utility accounts have those accounts and their payment histories reflected in credit reporting data. Because of this limitation, our analysis excludes the overwhelming majority of households that have severely overdue balances but are not yet in collections.7 Broader national survey data confirms a much larger crisis. A recent report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) states that one in six U.S. households is behind on utility bills, owing a total of $25 billion to electric and gas utilities.

For the families captured in consumer credit data who do fall into collections, the scale of the debt continues to expand. Since President Trump took office, the national average overdue utility balance rose by more than 8 percent, to $817 in March 2026. (See Figure 4.) Over the past four years, this average has increased nearly 40 percent.

FIGURE 4

In eleven states, average overdue utility debt now exceeds $1,000. Connecticut leads the nation in average overdue utility debt (over $2,300), followed by Rhode Island ($1,872), Massachusetts ($1,662), New York ($1,579), and Maine ($1,305). (See Figures 5A and 5B.) These extreme balances are driven by a combination of colder winter climates and older housing stock. Many of these states also limit winter shutoffs, which allows families to safely remain in their homes but also means that unpaid balances can be carried through the cold months. Correspondingly, lower overdue balances in other states do not signal less hardship. Instead, they often mean utilities disconnect service and transfer accounts to third-party collectors earlier. While this may limit the accumulation of utility debt, the outcome is immediate service loss, punitive fees, credit damage, and a direct threat to families’ health and well-being.

FIGURES 5A & 5B

Utility Debt Across Credit Profiles and Demographics

While the rise in cost of utility service is hitting households equally across credit risk tiers, wide gaps persist in who can afford to pay off their bills. Families of color, those with lower credit scores, and households headed by women are much more likely to fall behind and remain trapped in persistent utility debt.

Today, average monthly bills are remarkably consistent across households, regardless of credit score, having converged in recent years. (See Figure 6.) As of March 2026, Americans with super-prime credit scores (who tend to be higher income) have utility bills that average $288 a month, while those with deep subprime credit scores (scores below 580) have bills that average $279. However, long-term price hikes have hit Americans with deep subprime credit scores (who usually have lower incomes) significantly harder. Over the past four years, the average monthly bill for someone with a deep subprime credit score jumped by 52 percent, outpacing the 35 percent increase for those with super-prime credit scores (720+).

FIGURE 6

This dramatic uptick in utility costs has driven highly unequal rates of severe delinquency. Nearly one in five deep subprime households (18 percent) carries overdue utility debt. For super-prime consumers, that figure is less than 1 percent. When lower-credit households fall behind, the financial hole is much deeper. Deep subprime consumers carry an average past-due balance of $857, while subprime consumers average $809 and super-prime borrowers carry an average overdue balance of $505. (See Figure 7.) We know that deep subprime households are concentrated in lower-income urban areas, where soaring costs for essentials like housing and food often force families to choose paying for one basic necessity over another. Consequently, these consumers face a high risk of power disconnections, creating a financial domino effect that drives up their overall cost of living and traps them in cycles of expensive debt just to survive.

FIGURE 7

Middle-income households are not immune to the growing financial pressure associated with rising energy costs and overdue utility debt. Since December 2024, average overdue balances for subprime and near-prime households grew by 13.6 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively. This pace outstripped the 6.9 percent growth seen among deep subprime consumers over the same period, signaling that rising energy costs are now overwhelming families who previously maintained relatively more stable payment histories.

Racial divides in utility debt distress track deeper economic disparities. Black households face the highest risk of severe delinquency, with more than one in ten households (11.0 percent) carrying an overdue utility balance. This is three times the rate for white households (3.6 percent). Severe delinquency rates stand at 5.0 percent for Hispanic consumers and 6.0 percent for American Indian or Alaska Native consumers. 

Among those carrying overdue balances, Black and Asian consumers bear the heaviest financial liabilities. Black consumers average $901 in overdue utility debt, followed closely by Asian consumers at $890. Latino consumers carry an average balance of $808, while white consumers average $779. (See Figure 8.)

FIGURE 8

The long-term trends highlight an extraordinary rise in overdue utility balances among Asian consumers. From March 2022 to March 2026, the average overdue balance among Asian consumers jumped by 78 percent.8 Over the same four-year window, average overdue balances grew by 34 percent for Black consumers and 35 percent for white consumers. While Black families face the highest initial risk of falling behind, the scale of utility debt is compounding rapidly across multiple communities of color.

An examination by gender reveals a gap between monthly billing amounts and ultimate delinquency outcomes. On average, men face higher monthly utility bills ($290) than women ($264). Over a four-year period, men’s bills grew by 44 percent while women’s bills rose by 40.3 percent. Yet, despite facing lower average bills, women experience greater difficulty keeping up with payments and settling past-due accounts. The share of women-headed accounts with severely overdue utility debt stands at 4.8 percent, compared to 4.5 percent for men. Additionally, women also carry higher average overdue balances ($835) than men ($804). (See Figure 9.)

FIGURE 9

Conclusion

One year into President Trump’s second term, the typical household energy bill has reached $280 a month, average overdue balances have climbed to over $800, and roughly 14 million Americans now carry utility debt severe enough to be forced into collections. Even that figure captures only a sliver of the hardship: broader survey data show that one in six U.S. households are behind on their energy bills. And it’s not just the lowest-income families who are falling behind. Households with subprime and near-prime credit scores now have the fastest-growing overdue balances—a clear signal that growing utility debt burdens are becoming more prevalent among higher-income working class families who until recently had been managing to keep up. 

These pressures are set to intensify rather than ease. Households just experienced a record winter heating season, and the energy-price shock from the war in Iran is still feeding into the cost of gasoline, diesel, and home fuels—two trends that this analysis does not yet fully capture. The rapid buildout of AI data centers is loading enormous new demand onto the grid, and utilities are passing the cost of that expansion directly to ratepayers. Rather than cushioning the blow, federal policy is compounding it: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is unwinding the clean-energy investments projected to lower household bills, while the administration has shrunk the budget and fired the entire federal staff of the LIHEAP program, which millions of low-income families depend on to keep the heat and lights on.

When a record share of households cannot afford energy, the fallout compounds every other strain on family budgets, from groceries and rent to health care. Shutoffs, ballooning balances, damaged credit, and direct threats to health will follow closely behind.

Notes

  1. This analysis uses data from the University of California Consumer Credit Panel (UC-CCP), a 2 percent nationally representative sample of U.S. adults with credit records. We thank the California Policy Lab for hosting and documenting the UC-CCP.
  2. The authors’ analysis of March 2026 panel data matched with county-level Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) median household income confirms the correlation between credit scores and household income, showing that subprime and deep subprime consumers comprise over 30 percent of the lowest-income county quintile compared to 16 percent of the highest quintile. This distribution validates the use of credit scores as an income proxy, aligning with established economic literature; see, for example, Rachael Beer, Felicia Ionescu, and Geng Li, “Are Income and Credit Scores Highly Correlated?” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,” August 13, 2018, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/are-income-and-credit-scores-highly-correlated-20180813.html.
  3. This figure represents the data center share of the total regional capacity bill. According to the Independent Market Monitor for PJM, actual and forecast data center demand accounted for $9.33 billion of the total $14.69 billion capacity market revenue requirement for the previous delivery year (June 2025 through May 2026), which equals roughly 63 percent of the total cost. See Monitoring Analytics, “Analysis of the 2025/2026 RPM Base Residual Auction: Part G,” June 3, 2025, https://www.monitoringanalytics.com/reports/reports/2025/IMM_Analysis_of_the_20252026_RPM_Base_Residual_Auction_Part_G_20250603_Revised.pdf.
  4. Throughout, “utility” mainly refers to household energy service—electricity and natural gas. Past-due measures use credit-report “utilities” codes that predominantly capture energy accounts in collections; these measures may also include water/sewer utility accounts, but past-due debt from cable/Internet and cellular is excluded. Monthly bill balances come from active (noncollection) utility accounts; finer classifications let us exclude additional nonenergy utilities (for example, water), so the numbers mainly reflect electricity and natural gas. The data on utility bills reflects the subset of consumers whose utilities directly furnish ongoing billing information to the credit bureaus, so they align with, but do not exactly match, national benchmarks due to selection. For more on the dataset or methodology, see the “Appendix: Data and Methodology” in our initial report: https://tcf.org/content/commentary/fueling-debt-how-rising-utility-costs-are-overwhelming-american-families
  5. Overall period inflation is equal to the percent change in Consumer Price Index (seasonally adjusted) from December 2024 to March 2026 (4.0 percent).
  6. See PJM Interconnection, 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Results, identifying the clearing price surge to the regulatory cap of $329.17/MW-day compared to the $28.92/MW-day baseline from the 2024/2025 auction, https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2026-2027/2026-2027-bra-report.pdf
  7. We observe that more than 95 percent of utility records with overdue balances are accounts that have already been sent to a third-party collection agency.
  8. This sharp increase is primarily driven by geographic concentration and a low baseline effect. Over half of Asian American households reside in states with severe utility debt surges since March 2022, including New York, New Jersey, and California—with California alone seeing a 196 percent increase in average overdue balances. Furthermore, because Asian consumers had one of the lowest baseline average balances in March 2022 ($499), this small denominator disproportionately inflates the percentage growth as absolute debt levels converge across race/ethnic groups.

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