Yesterday in Foreign Policy, Thanassis Cambanis discussed the possibility that the civil war in Syria may become Iran’s Vietnam.
Cambanis’ argument is twofold. Iran, already suffering from sanctions, is spending untold millions propping up the al-Assad regime. Outside of monetary concerns, and its loss of an IRGC member in mid-February, Iran has squandered much of its influence in the region. Arab allies, like Hamas, have distanced themselves from Tehran while Hezbollah, Iran’s most potent ally in the region, is losing some of its credibility as a resistance force and is becoming viewed more and more as a Shia sectarian outfit.
The sectarian nature of the conflict is becoming all too clear in Lebanon as Hezbollah and FSA fighters move rapidly between positions in the Beqaa Valley of Lebanon and clashes in Syria. For those keeping score at home, Cambanis argues Iran not only risks losing blood and treasure in supporting the al-Assad regime, but regional influence and allies as well.
Click here to read Thanassis’ full article in Foreign Policy.