President Trump’s policies are squeezing Americans’ finances at every turn—from higher prices for consumers at the grocery store, to new tariffs plaguing small business owners, to smaller paychecks in workers’ pockets.
Adding to these direct costs, Trump’s economy of uncertainty is inflicting additional, hidden costs on families, businesses, workers, and our economy. From his erratic tariffs, to his cruel and unpredictable immigration policies, to his massive new budget law that leaves Americans unsure if they’ll still have health care, food assistance, and other critical benefits as states scramble to offset Trump’s cuts, the uncertainty Trump has stoked is creating very real costs. Families are delaying their dream of buying a home or having a child. Small business owners must make tough decisions today, unsure if there will be tariffs tomorrow. Workers are unable to find a job while employers pause their hiring. While the costs of uncertainty in Trump’s economy are sometimes less visible, they are no less painful—and they are adding up all around us. And they can be entirely prevented by one person: Donald Trump.
This uncertainty has dragged on for months, particularly regarding tariffs. After announcing steep tariffs on nearly seventy U.S. trading partners on April 2, Trump delayed these rates for ninety days as global markets crashed—vowing to make “90 deals in 90 days.” On August 1, after securing only a handful of deals, Trump again unveiled steep tariffs as high as 40 percent or more.
As the nation waits to see whether, this time, these taxes on consumption will take effect as scheduled on August 7, everyday Americans and small businesses are already paying a steep price for Trump’s economy of uncertainty—with no relief on the horizon.
Nine ways Americans are paying the price for Trump’s uncertainty
Trump’s economy of uncertainty is raising costs for Americans from all directions. Consumers are facing high and unpredictable prices, small business owners are working frantically to save their livelihoods, and workers are suffering from labor-market instability. People with student debt are getting crushed, individuals with disabilities are fearful for their access to health care and education, and Americans in disaster-prone areas are worried the federal government may abandon them when disaster strikes. Older Americans are concerned about whether they can retire. Parents are seeing the cost of raising a family going up, while would-be parents are putting off their dream of having children. Of course, many Americans belong to multiple of these groups—a parent can be a small business owner, a person with student debt can also be a worker, and all Americans are consumers.
Uncertainty from Trump’s policies is inflicting steep costs on these Americans—often in hidden ways. In a new survey of 2,000 Americans conducted by Morning Consult, The Century Foundation found that 6 in 10 believe the Trump administration has negatively impacted their cost of living, and nearly half say Trump’s policies have harmed their own personal finances. Trump’s economy of uncertainty is leading to widespread anxiety, with more than 3 in 4 Americans saying they are concerned about a possible recession. And Trump’s budget law, which slashes health care and food assistance for everyday Americans to pay for more than $4 trillion in tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, compounds Americans’ uncertainty and fear about what the future brings.
1. Consumers
Consumers are the backbone of the U.S. economy. Spending by consumers makes up roughly two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). So, economic policies and actions that create uncertainty among consumers and cause them to pull back on spending can harm the growth of the U.S. economy and can even lead to economic slowdowns.
Economic policies and actions that create uncertainty among consumers and cause them to pull back on spending can harm the growth of the U.S. economy.
The Trump administration’s inconsistent and erratic economic policymaking, from tariffs to immigration policy, has led to uncertainty about what will happen to prices in the future. This, in turn, has led to shrinking consumer confidence, as measured by both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence surveys, with many Americans pulling back out of concerns about prices as well as concerns that Trump’s policies will cause a recession, dampening their purchasing power and threatening their jobs. As noted above, a new survey found that more than three-quarters of Americans are concerned about a possible recession. Nearly 8 in 10—including nearly 70 percent of Republicans—are concerned that Trump’s tariffs will raise prices on everyday goods such as clothing and appliances.
Analysis from the Yale Budget Lab shows that Trump’s tariffs alone are leading to lower income for U.S. households in the short run and also have negative long-run impacts on overall economic growth. And new research indicates large corporations are using Trump’s erratic tariff policy as cover to hike prices. Trump’s tariff policy is also the reason interest rates remain high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that concerns over tariffs, which create uncertainty about future inflation, are the reason the Fed hasn’t lowered interest rates. This has hurt consumers by keeping the cost of major purchases, such as a new car or home, higher than it would otherwise be.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, seasonally adjusted consumer spending declined by $29 billion in May relative to April. Spending on cars decreased by over $49 billion, although the net loss was slightly offset by increased spending on housing and health care. Car prices are projected to remain high in the coming years due to the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Some consumers, responding to this uncertainty, may rush to make a purchase if they can afford it before additional tariffs kick in. But without an increase in auto supply, this new demand from trying to anticipate tariff-related price increases could further drive up prices on cars. It has also put more upward pressure on used car prices. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that prices for used cars are 7 percent higher than they were a year ago, and in June U.S. consumers spent $6 billion less than the previous month. Lower-income consumers who unexpectedly need to replace a vehicle they depend on to get to work may bear the brunt of this uncertainty, as they may need to make a new purchase during a temporary price surge before supply and demand level off. If spending continues to shrink as consumers remain uncertain about the economy, the harmful ripple effects on the U.S. economy overall could worsen.
Trump campaigned on addressing the high cost of living, yet his policies have led to an economy where consumers are spending more on basic needs such as housing and health care, which makes more acute spikes in grocery, apparel, or gas prices that much more painful. Far from delivering on his promises, Trump is instead exacerbating the cost-of-living concerns and anxieties experienced by a wide swath of Americans.
2. Small business owners
America’s 6 million small businesses have fewer tools to cope with risk and unanticipated costs than larger businesses. Nearly two-thirds of small businesses cite economic insecurity as the top challenge facing their business—the highest level since 2009—according to a recent National Small Business Association (NSBA) report. And they are deeply worried about the economy, with nearly 6 in 10 saying the economy is worse off than it was just six months ago. Just 22 percent expect business conditions to improve, down 3 percentage points from May to June, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB).
By stoking uncertainty, Trump is forcing small business owners to make tough decisions today that could hamper their long-term success, including pulling back on needed hiring or rushing to stockpile inventory at significant additional cost to avoid being stranded without their wares. This is particularly true of Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policies, since small businesses make up 97 percent of U.S. importers. The smallest businesses—those with fewer than ten employees—are already particularly hard hit: employment at these businesses has dropped by 3 percent, or 366,000 jobs, since President Trump took office. In addition, as their larger competitors use economies of scale to weather the storm, small businesses that hold less market power may be at competitive disadvantage.
Trump’s tariffs, rule changes, budget law, and uncertainty have contributed to the highest proposed premium increases in five years.
Small businesses owners also face great uncertainty about whether they can secure health care for themselves and their workers in the coming years, thanks to Trump’s actions and recently passed budget law—which cuts more than $1 trillion from health care programs to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy. Health care costs are a top concern for small businesses, which face higher costs to insure their employees than large businesses. A recent survey found that 55 percent of small businesses owners, employees, or family members rely on premium tax credits to afford Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace coverage. And nationwide, 1 in 5 small business owners, employees, and their family members receive health coverage through Medicaid. Trump’s tariffs, rule changes, budget law, and uncertainty have contributed to the highest proposed premium increases in five years. It is unclear whether Congress will renew enhanced premium tax credits, which would add hundreds or even thousands of dollars more per person for health coverage each year. Additionally, the budget law erects barriers to Medicaid and shift costs to states may respond to Medicaid cuts by reducing eligibility coverage. With fewer affordable health care options for their workers, many small businesses will be less able to compete for talent with larger businesses that can better afford to offer health care plans.
3. Workers
Millions of workers have been paying the price for Trump’s uncertainty in the labor market—from lower paychecks, to greater difficulty finding employment, to fear for their jobs and a struggle to find a new career path amid devastating federal funding cancellations in fields such as public health, medical research, and international development.
With tariff uncertainty causing businesses nationwide to pause hiring, far fewer new jobs have been available for workers who are unemployed or newly entering the labor market: the economy added an average of just 81,000 jobs per month in the first six months of Trump’s term, less than half the average of 175,000 per month in the final six months of the Biden administration. (Claiming the low jobs numbers were “rigged,” on August 1, Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—the independent agency responsible for producing unbiased employment estimates—undermining confidence that BLS can continue to provide labor market statistics free of political bias going forward.)
At the same time, workers who already have a job are staying the course, even if they’re unhappy—despite research showing that job mobility is often a driver of pay increases. A recent poll found that 63 percent of Americans who aspired to switch jobs said that anxiety over the current economy has negatively affected their decision of whether to do so. This has led to a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, leaving unemployed workers without an income for longer while depressing paychecks for those who are employed. In recent months, the number of workers who have been unable to transition from unemployment insurance into a new job has begun to mount. As of July 26, nearly 2 million workers were turning to unemployment benefits—the largest number since the height of the pandemic in November 2021 and an increase of 100,000 compared to this time last year.
As of July 26, nearly 2 million workers were turning to unemployment benefits—the largest number since the height of the pandemic in November 2021.
For certain groups of workers, Trump’s climate of uncertainty is cutting especially deep. For example, nearly 300,000 Black women have left the U.S. workforce in the past three months alone, which researchers attribute to the campaign of federal layoffs and threats waged by Trump and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Federal employment has long been a key source of stable, well-paying jobs, and Black women—who face greater labor market discrimination and sharp pay gaps in private-sector jobs—make up more than 12 percent of the federal workforce, nearly twice their share of the overall workforce.
In another example, manufacturing and construction workers are facing job loss and dimmer employment prospects after Trump’s budget law slashed incentives for clean energy projects from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Companies canceled or downsized more than $22 billion in new investments in the first half of 2025—including nearly $7 billion in June alone—including new factories for hydrogen, electric vehicles, batteries, and grid and transmission equipment. In total, the IRA rollbacks could threaten 1.75 million construction jobs, according to one estimate, translating into nearly $150 billion in lost wages for workers. With 80 percent of investments spurred by the IRA going to counties with below-average wages—and 85 percent to Republican-led congressional districts—it’s overwhelmingly workers in left-behind areas that supported Trump who must fear for their jobs.
Finally, as workers suffer through another summer of record-breaking heat, the Trump administration has stalled action on new heat protections proposed by the Biden administration that would protect 36 million workers against heat stroke and other life-threatening illnesses—leaving farmworkers, construction workers, and others to bear the costs of heat-related risk on the job.
4. Aspiring homeowners
For many Americans, buying a home is not only a centerpiece of the American Dream, it is also a primary way to build wealth and financial security. The April Harris poll showed that three-quarters of Americans who wanted to buy a house said the current economy is negatively affecting their ability to do so. These aspiring homeowners’ experiences demonstrate how Trump is not only failing to address the cost-of-living and economic challenges American families are facing, but his climate of uncertainty is also imposing long-run costs by stifling investments that enhance their economic mobility.
Data from June shows sales of existing home sales dropped by 2.7 percent, and the median price hit a record high of $435,000. New housing starts have slowed as Trump’s tariffs have hit housing supply chains hard, raising the cost of construction imports. Yet despite an estimated shortage of nearly 5 million housing units nationwide— including accessible housing for those with disabilities and the growing number of older adults—the Trump administration has failed to put forward significant solutions or investments to increase housing supply. In fact, residential construction spending in the economy continues to decline. Moreover, for an industry that relies on a large immigrant workforce, Trump’s worksite raids and threats of mass deportations of immigrant workers—many of whom have been living and working in the United States for decades—will undoubtedly threaten the health of the construction industry even further. Trump’s campaign of intimidation, coupled with his failure to offer housing policy solutions, will deny or delay the hopes of affordable housing or homeownership harbored by millions of families.
Furthermore, as the Trump administration’s erratic tariff policy continues to force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, housing will continue to remain out of reach as buyers contend with high mortgage rates that make it less attractive to buy a home. Those high rates, alongside fear of an economic slowdown or layoffs, may be another reason that large numbers of Americans are holding off on home-buying and other major investments that enhance their long-term economic security.
5. Families with young children
Raising children is expensive and parents with young children face especially severe financial constraints. In a 2017 report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated that it costs an average of $233,610 to raise a child from birth to age 17—even without the cost of college. Just adjusting for inflation brings this estimate up to over $322,000 in 2025.
However, one key expense for parents that has outpaced overall inflation is the cost of child care. In 2024, the average cost of child care in the United States was $13,128 per year. In many states it is even higher, depending on the age of children and the type of care they receive. And, in nearly every state, the cost of child care is significantly higher than the price of rent. As pandemic-era federal funds supporting the child care sector have expired, providers have struggled to determine how to continue operating. As one child care center director in Pennsylvania said, “I have to use loans, credit cards, and rental income to keep the program running.” This unstable funding environment leads to program closures and translates into uncertainty for families, leaving them scrambling to find last-minute solutions for their care needs, which can entail significant additional costs.
It’s not only Trump’s failure to sustain investments in child care that has created a climate of uncertainty for families and providers. The Trump administration’s immigration and family policies also raise costs for parents, making it even harder to afford raising a family in 2025. When nearly 1 in 5 child care workers are immigrants, this administration’s immigration policy threatens to worsen the workforce crisis faced by the sector, which is a key driver of high prices for child care. As food costs and housing costs, which make up nearly half the cost of raising a child, also increase, families raising children are put under even more economic pressure. Indeed, deep cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in Trump’s budget law—which imposes burdensome paperwork requirements on parents with dependent children as young as 13—could affect nutrition benefits for 3.3 million families with children, taking away resources that families need to put food on the table. This will make it harder for families to afford other expenses such as child care or build their savings for the future.
A late April poll found that 65 percent of Americans who want to have a child in 2025 are putting off doing so due to the current economy.
Not only are these high costs and uncertainty putting families on the back foot as they balance their checkbooks, but they are also keeping some Americans from starting a family altogether. A late April poll found that 65 percent of Americans who want to have a child in 2025 are putting off doing so due to the current economy.
6. College students and student borrowers
For nearly 43 million Americans who hold federal student loan debt, Trump’s punitive and opaque student loan policies are creating hardship, confusion, and fear about the future. In early May, the Trump administration abruptly restarted loan collections after a multi-year pause—providing very little clarity, outreach, or guidance for borrowers. In April 2025, as Trump announced the collections restart, more than 30 percent of student loan borrowers were delinquent on their loans—an increase of 50 percent since Trump took office. More than 5 million borrowers are currently in default, and this number could double to 10 million in the next few months. Millions of borrowers have seen their credit scores drop in recent months as the Trump administration restarted reporting student loan delinquencies to the credit bureaus. This makes it harder and more expensive for these borrowers to qualify for a mortgage or a car loan—and in some cases, to even get a job or rent an apartment.
All of this comes as President Trump works to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education—which has already seen its workforce cut nearly in half—making it significantly harder for borrowers to know how to get back on track or get help to untangle repayment problems caused by servicer errors.
Compounding the fear and confusion, the administration is threatening to garnish the wages and federal benefits of borrowers who cannot make their payments, saying that borrowers would begin receiving notice of garnishment “later this summer.” In other words, with little warning, borrowers could see the U.S. Department of the Treasury take away critical income and support that they urgently need to put food on the table or keep a roof over their family’s heads. This comes at the very time when college students are graduating into a job market with increasingly uncertain prospects for graduates seeking entry-level positions.
What’s more, Trump’s budget law will soon make it more difficult for students to repay their loans. The law is expected to raise monthly payments for most borrowers in the coming years. The typical borrower with a college degree will pay an additional $2,929 per year compared to the Biden administration’s SAVE repayment plan, according to estimates from the Student Borrower Protection Center, although borrowers currently enrolled in the SAVE plan can remain in that plan until 2028. The law also removes students’ ability to defer payments if they lose a job or face severe financial hardship. And new loan limits in the federal loan program will push more students into the private loan market, which is not only more expensive and riskier but also shuts out some students entirely based on their credit scores.
7. Older Americans
For older Americans, particularly those who are nearing retirement age, Trump’s economy of uncertainty is an especially acute concern. Trump’s economic uncertainty is raising fears of a slowing economy that could lead to a downturn in the market and layoffs by employers. Market volatility can be especially concerning for those who are nearing retirement age and hold retirement savings in stocks or bonds, since they may not have the time to “wait out” fluctuations in the market relative to younger Americans. Following Trump’s announcement of wide-ranging tariffs in April, some retirees sounded the alarm about the losses they were experiencing. This volatility has the potential to keep individuals from retiring when they had planned to or cause them to experience losses that will be hard to recuperate.
Layoffs are harder for older adults to rebound from than younger adults. Laid-off older adults spend a longer period unemployed and many may not return to the workforce at all. This can undermine long-term economic security, since these individuals may miss out on critical earnings and need to tap into their savings earlier than planned, depriving them of income they are counting on later in life.
Trump’s budget law’s Medicaid work requirements would likely cause people ages 55 to 64—who face greater barriers to employment than younger people—to lose coverage at a time when their health needs have increased.
Trump’s budget law’s Medicaid work requirements would likely cause people ages 55 to 64—who face greater barriers to employment than younger people—to lose coverage at a time when their health needs have increased. It also rolls back rules to improve access to Medicaid’s Medicare Savings Program that lowers out-of-pocket costs for low-income seniors and persons with disabilities.
8. Americans with disabilities
For the one in four U.S. adults who have a disability, affordable health care and long-term services and supports are often the critical precursor to staying healthy, conducting daily activities, and earning an income. Yet by 2034, an estimated 15 million people will become uninsured due to Trump’s budget law, administrative actions, and administrative neglect. While the law’s proponents claim it will not take health care away from people with disabilities, experts in the disability community strongly disagree.
For example, the budget law requires states to check enrollees’ eligibility for Medicaid expansion every six rather than twelve months, disproportionately affecting people with disabilities who qualify for coverage. Of the 15 million people with disabilities who get their health insurance through Medicaid, 66 percent are unprotected from work requirements because they qualify through non-disability pathways such as Medicaid expansion. The law’s burdensome new work reporting requirements could put disabled workers at risk of losing their Medicaid coverage due to a paperwork error or challenges documenting their community engagement hours each month, which may jeopardize their ability to stay healthy enough to keep their job. At the same time, disabled workers who experience a layoff from their employer may be unable to fulfill these punitive work reporting requirements before they can find a new job, causing them to lose health care that is critical for their reemployment—creating a poverty trap. Trump’s budget law thus deals a double dose of risk to disabled Americans who rely on Medicaid to help them work, when nearly two-thirds of Medicaid participants ages 19 to 64—including millions of adults with disabilities—are already working. In addition, by putting extreme pressure on states’ budgets, the law puts at risk home- and community-based services, which more than 4 million disabled Americans rely on to manage daily activities and participate in the workforce.
In another example, Trump’s actions are casting doubt on whether the federal government will uphold and enforce the legal right to a free and appropriate public education for students with disabilities. Trump’s devastating cuts to the U.S. Department of Education will severely curb the department’s capacity to protect K–12 students’ civil rights, including for the 7.5 million students with disabilities who receive services under the Individuals with Disabilities Act (IDEA). Already, students are seeing justice denied as the department stalls and drops disabilities rights cases. If disabled students are not being provided with a public education that includes the supports, modifications, and services that they need, their parent or guardian may need to leave their paid job in order to be a caregiver and teacher combined, as happened to some families during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even since COVID, many students with disabilities have struggled to keep pace and access the same services and success as their non-disabled peers. But now, as the Trump administration compounds these inequalities by deliberately usurping their educational needs, more students with disabilities whose schools are not meeting their needs may lack the preparation to help them enter and succeed in the workforce.
9. Residents of disaster-prone areas
Americans who live in communities prone to natural disasters—from floods to hurricanes to wildfires—have experienced a dramatic increase in weather- and climate-related risk from Trump’s policies. His reckless federal workforce cuts have spurred the departure of nearly 2,000 employees from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—including about 600 employees from the National Weather Service (NWS), which is responsible for producing timely, accurate weather forecasts. Nearly half of NWS forecast offices are now critically understaffed, with vacancy rates of 20 percent or higher—twice the rate of a decade ago. Staffing issues at the NWS office in San Antonio, Texas—where the warning coordination meteorologist left in late April after taking Trump’s buy-out package—may have contributed to the loss from the tragic floods on July 4 that killed at least 136 people in Kerr County.
In addition to undermining critical warning systems, Trump is also threatening communities’ ability to recover after a disaster strikes. He has repeatedly called to eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which state policymakers affirm is a critical lifeline for disaster response. He has threatened to withhold disaster aid unless governors bend to his political will, as he did after the wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles in January, which are expected to be the costliest wildfires in U.S. history.
Trump’s policies will force families in disaster-prone regions to face steeper bills for preparations and rebuilding as they grapple with the new loss of confidence in our federal warning systems, availability of response and recovery resources when disaster strikes, and assistance for the long-term work of climate change prevention and mitigation. From digging into their own pocketbooks to amass supplies and protections, to relocating from their homes, to questioning whether they can count on federal help in the event of the worst, Trump’s unpredictable and reckless approach is imposing real costs on Americans who are most vulnerable to severe natural disasters.
Conclusion
Trump’s erratic policymaking is stoking widespread uncertainty—from unpredictable tariffs, to immigration raids, to threats to disaster assistance, to the chaos and harm caused by his budget law, and more. While Trump himself faces no consequences for changing his mind on a whim, ordinary Americans are paying the price for his volatility every day.
Tags: us economy, tariffs, donald trump
Trump’s Tariffs and Economy of Uncertainty Are Already Causing Pain
President Trump’s policies are squeezing Americans’ finances at every turn—from higher prices for consumers at the grocery store, to new tariffs plaguing small business owners, to smaller paychecks in workers’ pockets.
Adding to these direct costs, Trump’s economy of uncertainty is inflicting additional, hidden costs on families, businesses, workers, and our economy. From his erratic tariffs, to his cruel and unpredictable immigration policies, to his massive new budget law that leaves Americans unsure if they’ll still have health care, food assistance, and other critical benefits as states scramble to offset Trump’s cuts, the uncertainty Trump has stoked is creating very real costs. Families are delaying their dream of buying a home or having a child. Small business owners must make tough decisions today, unsure if there will be tariffs tomorrow. Workers are unable to find a job while employers pause their hiring. While the costs of uncertainty in Trump’s economy are sometimes less visible, they are no less painful—and they are adding up all around us. And they can be entirely prevented by one person: Donald Trump.
This uncertainty has dragged on for months, particularly regarding tariffs. After announcing steep tariffs on nearly seventy U.S. trading partners on April 2, Trump delayed these rates for ninety days as global markets crashed—vowing to make “90 deals in 90 days.” On August 1, after securing only a handful of deals, Trump again unveiled steep tariffs as high as 40 percent or more.
As the nation waits to see whether, this time, these taxes on consumption will take effect as scheduled on August 7, everyday Americans and small businesses are already paying a steep price for Trump’s economy of uncertainty—with no relief on the horizon.
Nine ways Americans are paying the price for Trump’s uncertainty
Trump’s economy of uncertainty is raising costs for Americans from all directions. Consumers are facing high and unpredictable prices, small business owners are working frantically to save their livelihoods, and workers are suffering from labor-market instability. People with student debt are getting crushed, individuals with disabilities are fearful for their access to health care and education, and Americans in disaster-prone areas are worried the federal government may abandon them when disaster strikes. Older Americans are concerned about whether they can retire. Parents are seeing the cost of raising a family going up, while would-be parents are putting off their dream of having children. Of course, many Americans belong to multiple of these groups—a parent can be a small business owner, a person with student debt can also be a worker, and all Americans are consumers.
Uncertainty from Trump’s policies is inflicting steep costs on these Americans—often in hidden ways. In a new survey of 2,000 Americans conducted by Morning Consult, The Century Foundation found that 6 in 10 believe the Trump administration has negatively impacted their cost of living, and nearly half say Trump’s policies have harmed their own personal finances. Trump’s economy of uncertainty is leading to widespread anxiety, with more than 3 in 4 Americans saying they are concerned about a possible recession. And Trump’s budget law, which slashes health care and food assistance for everyday Americans to pay for more than $4 trillion in tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, compounds Americans’ uncertainty and fear about what the future brings.
1. Consumers
Consumers are the backbone of the U.S. economy. Spending by consumers makes up roughly two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). So, economic policies and actions that create uncertainty among consumers and cause them to pull back on spending can harm the growth of the U.S. economy and can even lead to economic slowdowns.
The Trump administration’s inconsistent and erratic economic policymaking, from tariffs to immigration policy, has led to uncertainty about what will happen to prices in the future. This, in turn, has led to shrinking consumer confidence, as measured by both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence surveys, with many Americans pulling back out of concerns about prices as well as concerns that Trump’s policies will cause a recession, dampening their purchasing power and threatening their jobs. As noted above, a new survey found that more than three-quarters of Americans are concerned about a possible recession. Nearly 8 in 10—including nearly 70 percent of Republicans—are concerned that Trump’s tariffs will raise prices on everyday goods such as clothing and appliances.
Analysis from the Yale Budget Lab shows that Trump’s tariffs alone are leading to lower income for U.S. households in the short run and also have negative long-run impacts on overall economic growth. And new research indicates large corporations are using Trump’s erratic tariff policy as cover to hike prices. Trump’s tariff policy is also the reason interest rates remain high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that concerns over tariffs, which create uncertainty about future inflation, are the reason the Fed hasn’t lowered interest rates. This has hurt consumers by keeping the cost of major purchases, such as a new car or home, higher than it would otherwise be.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, seasonally adjusted consumer spending declined by $29 billion in May relative to April. Spending on cars decreased by over $49 billion, although the net loss was slightly offset by increased spending on housing and health care. Car prices are projected to remain high in the coming years due to the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Some consumers, responding to this uncertainty, may rush to make a purchase if they can afford it before additional tariffs kick in. But without an increase in auto supply, this new demand from trying to anticipate tariff-related price increases could further drive up prices on cars. It has also put more upward pressure on used car prices. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that prices for used cars are 7 percent higher than they were a year ago, and in June U.S. consumers spent $6 billion less than the previous month. Lower-income consumers who unexpectedly need to replace a vehicle they depend on to get to work may bear the brunt of this uncertainty, as they may need to make a new purchase during a temporary price surge before supply and demand level off. If spending continues to shrink as consumers remain uncertain about the economy, the harmful ripple effects on the U.S. economy overall could worsen.
Trump campaigned on addressing the high cost of living, yet his policies have led to an economy where consumers are spending more on basic needs such as housing and health care, which makes more acute spikes in grocery, apparel, or gas prices that much more painful. Far from delivering on his promises, Trump is instead exacerbating the cost-of-living concerns and anxieties experienced by a wide swath of Americans.
2. Small business owners
America’s 6 million small businesses have fewer tools to cope with risk and unanticipated costs than larger businesses. Nearly two-thirds of small businesses cite economic insecurity as the top challenge facing their business—the highest level since 2009—according to a recent National Small Business Association (NSBA) report. And they are deeply worried about the economy, with nearly 6 in 10 saying the economy is worse off than it was just six months ago. Just 22 percent expect business conditions to improve, down 3 percentage points from May to June, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB).
By stoking uncertainty, Trump is forcing small business owners to make tough decisions today that could hamper their long-term success, including pulling back on needed hiring or rushing to stockpile inventory at significant additional cost to avoid being stranded without their wares. This is particularly true of Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policies, since small businesses make up 97 percent of U.S. importers. The smallest businesses—those with fewer than ten employees—are already particularly hard hit: employment at these businesses has dropped by 3 percent, or 366,000 jobs, since President Trump took office. In addition, as their larger competitors use economies of scale to weather the storm, small businesses that hold less market power may be at competitive disadvantage.
Small businesses owners also face great uncertainty about whether they can secure health care for themselves and their workers in the coming years, thanks to Trump’s actions and recently passed budget law—which cuts more than $1 trillion from health care programs to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy. Health care costs are a top concern for small businesses, which face higher costs to insure their employees than large businesses. A recent survey found that 55 percent of small businesses owners, employees, or family members rely on premium tax credits to afford Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace coverage. And nationwide, 1 in 5 small business owners, employees, and their family members receive health coverage through Medicaid. Trump’s tariffs, rule changes, budget law, and uncertainty have contributed to the highest proposed premium increases in five years. It is unclear whether Congress will renew enhanced premium tax credits, which would add hundreds or even thousands of dollars more per person for health coverage each year. Additionally, the budget law erects barriers to Medicaid and shift costs to states may respond to Medicaid cuts by reducing eligibility coverage. With fewer affordable health care options for their workers, many small businesses will be less able to compete for talent with larger businesses that can better afford to offer health care plans.
3. Workers
Millions of workers have been paying the price for Trump’s uncertainty in the labor market—from lower paychecks, to greater difficulty finding employment, to fear for their jobs and a struggle to find a new career path amid devastating federal funding cancellations in fields such as public health, medical research, and international development.
With tariff uncertainty causing businesses nationwide to pause hiring, far fewer new jobs have been available for workers who are unemployed or newly entering the labor market: the economy added an average of just 81,000 jobs per month in the first six months of Trump’s term, less than half the average of 175,000 per month in the final six months of the Biden administration. (Claiming the low jobs numbers were “rigged,” on August 1, Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—the independent agency responsible for producing unbiased employment estimates—undermining confidence that BLS can continue to provide labor market statistics free of political bias going forward.)
At the same time, workers who already have a job are staying the course, even if they’re unhappy—despite research showing that job mobility is often a driver of pay increases. A recent poll found that 63 percent of Americans who aspired to switch jobs said that anxiety over the current economy has negatively affected their decision of whether to do so. This has led to a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, leaving unemployed workers without an income for longer while depressing paychecks for those who are employed. In recent months, the number of workers who have been unable to transition from unemployment insurance into a new job has begun to mount. As of July 26, nearly 2 million workers were turning to unemployment benefits—the largest number since the height of the pandemic in November 2021 and an increase of 100,000 compared to this time last year.
For certain groups of workers, Trump’s climate of uncertainty is cutting especially deep. For example, nearly 300,000 Black women have left the U.S. workforce in the past three months alone, which researchers attribute to the campaign of federal layoffs and threats waged by Trump and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Federal employment has long been a key source of stable, well-paying jobs, and Black women—who face greater labor market discrimination and sharp pay gaps in private-sector jobs—make up more than 12 percent of the federal workforce, nearly twice their share of the overall workforce.
In another example, manufacturing and construction workers are facing job loss and dimmer employment prospects after Trump’s budget law slashed incentives for clean energy projects from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Companies canceled or downsized more than $22 billion in new investments in the first half of 2025—including nearly $7 billion in June alone—including new factories for hydrogen, electric vehicles, batteries, and grid and transmission equipment. In total, the IRA rollbacks could threaten 1.75 million construction jobs, according to one estimate, translating into nearly $150 billion in lost wages for workers. With 80 percent of investments spurred by the IRA going to counties with below-average wages—and 85 percent to Republican-led congressional districts—it’s overwhelmingly workers in left-behind areas that supported Trump who must fear for their jobs.
Finally, as workers suffer through another summer of record-breaking heat, the Trump administration has stalled action on new heat protections proposed by the Biden administration that would protect 36 million workers against heat stroke and other life-threatening illnesses—leaving farmworkers, construction workers, and others to bear the costs of heat-related risk on the job.
4. Aspiring homeowners
For many Americans, buying a home is not only a centerpiece of the American Dream, it is also a primary way to build wealth and financial security. The April Harris poll showed that three-quarters of Americans who wanted to buy a house said the current economy is negatively affecting their ability to do so. These aspiring homeowners’ experiences demonstrate how Trump is not only failing to address the cost-of-living and economic challenges American families are facing, but his climate of uncertainty is also imposing long-run costs by stifling investments that enhance their economic mobility.
Data from June shows sales of existing home sales dropped by 2.7 percent, and the median price hit a record high of $435,000. New housing starts have slowed as Trump’s tariffs have hit housing supply chains hard, raising the cost of construction imports. Yet despite an estimated shortage of nearly 5 million housing units nationwide— including accessible housing for those with disabilities and the growing number of older adults—the Trump administration has failed to put forward significant solutions or investments to increase housing supply. In fact, residential construction spending in the economy continues to decline. Moreover, for an industry that relies on a large immigrant workforce, Trump’s worksite raids and threats of mass deportations of immigrant workers—many of whom have been living and working in the United States for decades—will undoubtedly threaten the health of the construction industry even further. Trump’s campaign of intimidation, coupled with his failure to offer housing policy solutions, will deny or delay the hopes of affordable housing or homeownership harbored by millions of families.
Furthermore, as the Trump administration’s erratic tariff policy continues to force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, housing will continue to remain out of reach as buyers contend with high mortgage rates that make it less attractive to buy a home. Those high rates, alongside fear of an economic slowdown or layoffs, may be another reason that large numbers of Americans are holding off on home-buying and other major investments that enhance their long-term economic security.
5. Families with young children
Raising children is expensive and parents with young children face especially severe financial constraints. In a 2017 report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated that it costs an average of $233,610 to raise a child from birth to age 17—even without the cost of college. Just adjusting for inflation brings this estimate up to over $322,000 in 2025.
However, one key expense for parents that has outpaced overall inflation is the cost of child care. In 2024, the average cost of child care in the United States was $13,128 per year. In many states it is even higher, depending on the age of children and the type of care they receive. And, in nearly every state, the cost of child care is significantly higher than the price of rent. As pandemic-era federal funds supporting the child care sector have expired, providers have struggled to determine how to continue operating. As one child care center director in Pennsylvania said, “I have to use loans, credit cards, and rental income to keep the program running.” This unstable funding environment leads to program closures and translates into uncertainty for families, leaving them scrambling to find last-minute solutions for their care needs, which can entail significant additional costs.
It’s not only Trump’s failure to sustain investments in child care that has created a climate of uncertainty for families and providers. The Trump administration’s immigration and family policies also raise costs for parents, making it even harder to afford raising a family in 2025. When nearly 1 in 5 child care workers are immigrants, this administration’s immigration policy threatens to worsen the workforce crisis faced by the sector, which is a key driver of high prices for child care. As food costs and housing costs, which make up nearly half the cost of raising a child, also increase, families raising children are put under even more economic pressure. Indeed, deep cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in Trump’s budget law—which imposes burdensome paperwork requirements on parents with dependent children as young as 13—could affect nutrition benefits for 3.3 million families with children, taking away resources that families need to put food on the table. This will make it harder for families to afford other expenses such as child care or build their savings for the future.
Not only are these high costs and uncertainty putting families on the back foot as they balance their checkbooks, but they are also keeping some Americans from starting a family altogether. A late April poll found that 65 percent of Americans who want to have a child in 2025 are putting off doing so due to the current economy.
6. College students and student borrowers
For nearly 43 million Americans who hold federal student loan debt, Trump’s punitive and opaque student loan policies are creating hardship, confusion, and fear about the future. In early May, the Trump administration abruptly restarted loan collections after a multi-year pause—providing very little clarity, outreach, or guidance for borrowers. In April 2025, as Trump announced the collections restart, more than 30 percent of student loan borrowers were delinquent on their loans—an increase of 50 percent since Trump took office. More than 5 million borrowers are currently in default, and this number could double to 10 million in the next few months. Millions of borrowers have seen their credit scores drop in recent months as the Trump administration restarted reporting student loan delinquencies to the credit bureaus. This makes it harder and more expensive for these borrowers to qualify for a mortgage or a car loan—and in some cases, to even get a job or rent an apartment.
All of this comes as President Trump works to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education—which has already seen its workforce cut nearly in half—making it significantly harder for borrowers to know how to get back on track or get help to untangle repayment problems caused by servicer errors.
Compounding the fear and confusion, the administration is threatening to garnish the wages and federal benefits of borrowers who cannot make their payments, saying that borrowers would begin receiving notice of garnishment “later this summer.” In other words, with little warning, borrowers could see the U.S. Department of the Treasury take away critical income and support that they urgently need to put food on the table or keep a roof over their family’s heads. This comes at the very time when college students are graduating into a job market with increasingly uncertain prospects for graduates seeking entry-level positions.
What’s more, Trump’s budget law will soon make it more difficult for students to repay their loans. The law is expected to raise monthly payments for most borrowers in the coming years. The typical borrower with a college degree will pay an additional $2,929 per year compared to the Biden administration’s SAVE repayment plan, according to estimates from the Student Borrower Protection Center, although borrowers currently enrolled in the SAVE plan can remain in that plan until 2028. The law also removes students’ ability to defer payments if they lose a job or face severe financial hardship. And new loan limits in the federal loan program will push more students into the private loan market, which is not only more expensive and riskier but also shuts out some students entirely based on their credit scores.
7. Older Americans
For older Americans, particularly those who are nearing retirement age, Trump’s economy of uncertainty is an especially acute concern. Trump’s economic uncertainty is raising fears of a slowing economy that could lead to a downturn in the market and layoffs by employers. Market volatility can be especially concerning for those who are nearing retirement age and hold retirement savings in stocks or bonds, since they may not have the time to “wait out” fluctuations in the market relative to younger Americans. Following Trump’s announcement of wide-ranging tariffs in April, some retirees sounded the alarm about the losses they were experiencing. This volatility has the potential to keep individuals from retiring when they had planned to or cause them to experience losses that will be hard to recuperate.
Layoffs are harder for older adults to rebound from than younger adults. Laid-off older adults spend a longer period unemployed and many may not return to the workforce at all. This can undermine long-term economic security, since these individuals may miss out on critical earnings and need to tap into their savings earlier than planned, depriving them of income they are counting on later in life.
Trump’s budget law’s Medicaid work requirements would likely cause people ages 55 to 64—who face greater barriers to employment than younger people—to lose coverage at a time when their health needs have increased. It also rolls back rules to improve access to Medicaid’s Medicare Savings Program that lowers out-of-pocket costs for low-income seniors and persons with disabilities.
8. Americans with disabilities
For the one in four U.S. adults who have a disability, affordable health care and long-term services and supports are often the critical precursor to staying healthy, conducting daily activities, and earning an income. Yet by 2034, an estimated 15 million people will become uninsured due to Trump’s budget law, administrative actions, and administrative neglect. While the law’s proponents claim it will not take health care away from people with disabilities, experts in the disability community strongly disagree.
For example, the budget law requires states to check enrollees’ eligibility for Medicaid expansion every six rather than twelve months, disproportionately affecting people with disabilities who qualify for coverage. Of the 15 million people with disabilities who get their health insurance through Medicaid, 66 percent are unprotected from work requirements because they qualify through non-disability pathways such as Medicaid expansion. The law’s burdensome new work reporting requirements could put disabled workers at risk of losing their Medicaid coverage due to a paperwork error or challenges documenting their community engagement hours each month, which may jeopardize their ability to stay healthy enough to keep their job. At the same time, disabled workers who experience a layoff from their employer may be unable to fulfill these punitive work reporting requirements before they can find a new job, causing them to lose health care that is critical for their reemployment—creating a poverty trap. Trump’s budget law thus deals a double dose of risk to disabled Americans who rely on Medicaid to help them work, when nearly two-thirds of Medicaid participants ages 19 to 64—including millions of adults with disabilities—are already working. In addition, by putting extreme pressure on states’ budgets, the law puts at risk home- and community-based services, which more than 4 million disabled Americans rely on to manage daily activities and participate in the workforce.
In another example, Trump’s actions are casting doubt on whether the federal government will uphold and enforce the legal right to a free and appropriate public education for students with disabilities. Trump’s devastating cuts to the U.S. Department of Education will severely curb the department’s capacity to protect K–12 students’ civil rights, including for the 7.5 million students with disabilities who receive services under the Individuals with Disabilities Act (IDEA). Already, students are seeing justice denied as the department stalls and drops disabilities rights cases. If disabled students are not being provided with a public education that includes the supports, modifications, and services that they need, their parent or guardian may need to leave their paid job in order to be a caregiver and teacher combined, as happened to some families during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even since COVID, many students with disabilities have struggled to keep pace and access the same services and success as their non-disabled peers. But now, as the Trump administration compounds these inequalities by deliberately usurping their educational needs, more students with disabilities whose schools are not meeting their needs may lack the preparation to help them enter and succeed in the workforce.
9. Residents of disaster-prone areas
Americans who live in communities prone to natural disasters—from floods to hurricanes to wildfires—have experienced a dramatic increase in weather- and climate-related risk from Trump’s policies. His reckless federal workforce cuts have spurred the departure of nearly 2,000 employees from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—including about 600 employees from the National Weather Service (NWS), which is responsible for producing timely, accurate weather forecasts. Nearly half of NWS forecast offices are now critically understaffed, with vacancy rates of 20 percent or higher—twice the rate of a decade ago. Staffing issues at the NWS office in San Antonio, Texas—where the warning coordination meteorologist left in late April after taking Trump’s buy-out package—may have contributed to the loss from the tragic floods on July 4 that killed at least 136 people in Kerr County.
In addition to undermining critical warning systems, Trump is also threatening communities’ ability to recover after a disaster strikes. He has repeatedly called to eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which state policymakers affirm is a critical lifeline for disaster response. He has threatened to withhold disaster aid unless governors bend to his political will, as he did after the wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles in January, which are expected to be the costliest wildfires in U.S. history.
Trump’s policies will force families in disaster-prone regions to face steeper bills for preparations and rebuilding as they grapple with the new loss of confidence in our federal warning systems, availability of response and recovery resources when disaster strikes, and assistance for the long-term work of climate change prevention and mitigation. From digging into their own pocketbooks to amass supplies and protections, to relocating from their homes, to questioning whether they can count on federal help in the event of the worst, Trump’s unpredictable and reckless approach is imposing real costs on Americans who are most vulnerable to severe natural disasters.
Conclusion
Trump’s erratic policymaking is stoking widespread uncertainty—from unpredictable tariffs, to immigration raids, to threats to disaster assistance, to the chaos and harm caused by his budget law, and more. While Trump himself faces no consequences for changing his mind on a whim, ordinary Americans are paying the price for his volatility every day.
Tags: us economy, tariffs, donald trump