Online education has the potential to increase the number of students who attend and complete college. Exclusively online degree programs, in particular, can remove time- or location-based constraints associated with enrolling in courses that require in-person attendance on campus. Due to the convenience and flexibility of online degree programs, the proportion of college students enrolled in exclusively online degree programs has increased from 6.3 percent in 2012 to 23.4 percent in 2020. In light of the growing popularity of exclusively online degree programs, colleges and universities must reconcile whether these programs have a democratizing effect by opening new doors to higher education or a diversionary effect by attracting students who may have performed better in an in-person learning environment.
In this commentary, we present key findings from our analyses in “The Role and Influence of Exclusively Online Degree Programs in Higher Education,” an academic paper recently accepted for publication in the American Educational Research Journal.
To carry out our analyses, we used student-level data from the 2012–2017 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) to track students who first enrolled in postsecondary institutions during the 2011–2012 academic year. Students represented in the dataset participated in three rounds of data collection in their first, third, and sixth years after beginning college.
Background data collected at the beginning of students’ college participation help to identify pre-college differences between students who did and did not enroll in exclusively online degree programs. If there were pre-college differences between students who enrolled in exclusively online degree programs and students who did not, and these differences were related to the outcome of degree completion, any estimates of the impact of exclusively online enrollment on degree completion might mistakenly reflect these pre-college differences if researchers don’t account for those differences in the research design. We addressed these pre-college differences by employing a quasi-experimental approach to compare exclusively online students to students with similar background characteristics who did not enroll exclusively online.
Analysis Reveals Stark Disparities in Completion Rates
Results from our analyses suggest that students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.3 percentage points less likely to complete bachelor’s degrees relative to students who did not enroll exclusively online. Black students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.6 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree relative to Black students who did not. Results were similar for White students in exclusively online degree programs, who were 8.1 percentage points less likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than their White peers. The estimated difference was more than twice as large for Asian students, but these students had the smallest sample in the BPS data. The difference in bachelor’s degree completion was not statistically significant for Hispanic students, but Hispanic students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.7 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate degree or bachelor’s degree) relative to Hispanic students who did not enroll exclusively online.
With respect to other student characteristics, low-income students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.9 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree relative to low-income students who did not enroll exclusively online. Results were slightly larger for students with military service, as exclusively online students with military service were 11.4 percentage points less likely to earn their bachelor’s degree when compared to their peers with military service. The difference in bachelor’s degree completion was not significant for financially independent students, but independent students who enrolled exclusively online were 5.5 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate degree or bachelor’s degree) relative to independent students who did not enroll exclusively online.
The figure below shows bachelor’s degree completion rate differences by medium of instruction after using quasi-experimental methods to compare similar students who enrolled in online degree programs to those who did not. As the figure shows, exclusively online students’ probability of completing a bachelor’s degree was consistently lower than their peers with similar background characteristics.
Figure 1
We also investigated the influence of institution sector on completion outcomes for exclusively online students. To do so, we used a sample including only students who enrolled exclusively online and compared similar students within each institution sector who enrolled in exclusively online degree programs. For some students who have no choice but to enroll in an exclusively online degree program, the relevant comparison is not the outcomes they would have realized if they attended in-person, but the outcomes they would have realized if they enrolled exclusively online at a different institution.
Exclusively online students who expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher and attended for-profit four-year institutions were 11.9 percentage points less likely to complete bachelor’s degrees relative to exclusively online students at other types of institutions. Given the large share of associate degree programs at for-profit four-year institutions, we also considered the outcome of associate degree completion among exclusively online students at for-profit four-year institutions. For students who expected to earn an associate degree or higher, exclusively online students at for-profit four-year institutions were 3.5 percentage points less likely to earn an associate degree relative to students at other types of institutions.
Exclusively Online Programs Hinder Student Success
Taken together, our findings highlight a clear and consistent story: students in exclusively online degree programs are less likely to complete their bachelor’s degree, even when they’re compared to students with similar background characteristics. When students have a choice between enrolling in at least some in-person courses or exclusively online degree programs, our analyses suggest that students should enroll in some in-person courses.
Taken together, our findings highlight a clear and consistent story: students in exclusively online degree programs are less likely to complete their bachelor’s degree, even when they’re compared to students with similar background characteristics.
However, one institution type in particular is doing the most harm when it comes to exclusively online students—for-profit four-year institutions. Across numerous analyses and degree completion outcomes, for-profit four-year institutions appeared to be a very poor choice for all types of students. For-profit advocates often suggest that completion outcomes are so low because for-profit students have pre-college characteristics that make them less likely to graduate in the first place. We account for these pre-college differences in our analyses but consistently find that exclusively online students at for-profit four-year institutions fare worse than their similar peers enrolled in exclusively online degree programs at any other institution type.
But some time- or location-constrained students are not able to enroll in at least some in-person courses, leaving only a decision between enrolling in an exclusively online degree program or not going to college at all. For those students who have no choice but to enroll in exclusively online degree programs, colleges and universities would benefit from widespread distribution and communication of established best practices for the development and delivery of high-quality online degree programs. Future accreditation efforts should evaluate clear, shared, and elevated standards for exclusively online degree programs and online education at large.
Tags: online education, online college
The Problem With Exclusively Online Degree Programs
Online education has the potential to increase the number of students who attend and complete college. Exclusively online degree programs, in particular, can remove time- or location-based constraints associated with enrolling in courses that require in-person attendance on campus. Due to the convenience and flexibility of online degree programs, the proportion of college students enrolled in exclusively online degree programs has increased from 6.3 percent in 2012 to 23.4 percent in 2020. In light of the growing popularity of exclusively online degree programs, colleges and universities must reconcile whether these programs have a democratizing effect by opening new doors to higher education or a diversionary effect by attracting students who may have performed better in an in-person learning environment.
In this commentary, we present key findings from our analyses in “The Role and Influence of Exclusively Online Degree Programs in Higher Education,” an academic paper recently accepted for publication in the American Educational Research Journal.
To carry out our analyses, we used student-level data from the 2012–2017 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) to track students who first enrolled in postsecondary institutions during the 2011–2012 academic year. Students represented in the dataset participated in three rounds of data collection in their first, third, and sixth years after beginning college.
Background data collected at the beginning of students’ college participation help to identify pre-college differences between students who did and did not enroll in exclusively online degree programs. If there were pre-college differences between students who enrolled in exclusively online degree programs and students who did not, and these differences were related to the outcome of degree completion, any estimates of the impact of exclusively online enrollment on degree completion might mistakenly reflect these pre-college differences if researchers don’t account for those differences in the research design. We addressed these pre-college differences by employing a quasi-experimental approach to compare exclusively online students to students with similar background characteristics who did not enroll exclusively online.
Analysis Reveals Stark Disparities in Completion Rates
Results from our analyses suggest that students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.3 percentage points less likely to complete bachelor’s degrees relative to students who did not enroll exclusively online. Black students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.6 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree relative to Black students who did not. Results were similar for White students in exclusively online degree programs, who were 8.1 percentage points less likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than their White peers. The estimated difference was more than twice as large for Asian students, but these students had the smallest sample in the BPS data. The difference in bachelor’s degree completion was not statistically significant for Hispanic students, but Hispanic students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.7 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate degree or bachelor’s degree) relative to Hispanic students who did not enroll exclusively online.
With respect to other student characteristics, low-income students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.9 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree relative to low-income students who did not enroll exclusively online. Results were slightly larger for students with military service, as exclusively online students with military service were 11.4 percentage points less likely to earn their bachelor’s degree when compared to their peers with military service. The difference in bachelor’s degree completion was not significant for financially independent students, but independent students who enrolled exclusively online were 5.5 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate degree or bachelor’s degree) relative to independent students who did not enroll exclusively online.
The figure below shows bachelor’s degree completion rate differences by medium of instruction after using quasi-experimental methods to compare similar students who enrolled in online degree programs to those who did not. As the figure shows, exclusively online students’ probability of completing a bachelor’s degree was consistently lower than their peers with similar background characteristics.
Figure 1
We also investigated the influence of institution sector on completion outcomes for exclusively online students. To do so, we used a sample including only students who enrolled exclusively online and compared similar students within each institution sector who enrolled in exclusively online degree programs. For some students who have no choice but to enroll in an exclusively online degree program, the relevant comparison is not the outcomes they would have realized if they attended in-person, but the outcomes they would have realized if they enrolled exclusively online at a different institution.
Exclusively online students who expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher and attended for-profit four-year institutions were 11.9 percentage points less likely to complete bachelor’s degrees relative to exclusively online students at other types of institutions. Given the large share of associate degree programs at for-profit four-year institutions, we also considered the outcome of associate degree completion among exclusively online students at for-profit four-year institutions. For students who expected to earn an associate degree or higher, exclusively online students at for-profit four-year institutions were 3.5 percentage points less likely to earn an associate degree relative to students at other types of institutions.
Exclusively Online Programs Hinder Student Success
Taken together, our findings highlight a clear and consistent story: students in exclusively online degree programs are less likely to complete their bachelor’s degree, even when they’re compared to students with similar background characteristics. When students have a choice between enrolling in at least some in-person courses or exclusively online degree programs, our analyses suggest that students should enroll in some in-person courses.
However, one institution type in particular is doing the most harm when it comes to exclusively online students—for-profit four-year institutions. Across numerous analyses and degree completion outcomes, for-profit four-year institutions appeared to be a very poor choice for all types of students. For-profit advocates often suggest that completion outcomes are so low because for-profit students have pre-college characteristics that make them less likely to graduate in the first place. We account for these pre-college differences in our analyses but consistently find that exclusively online students at for-profit four-year institutions fare worse than their similar peers enrolled in exclusively online degree programs at any other institution type.
But some time- or location-constrained students are not able to enroll in at least some in-person courses, leaving only a decision between enrolling in an exclusively online degree program or not going to college at all. For those students who have no choice but to enroll in exclusively online degree programs, colleges and universities would benefit from widespread distribution and communication of established best practices for the development and delivery of high-quality online degree programs. Future accreditation efforts should evaluate clear, shared, and elevated standards for exclusively online degree programs and online education at large.
Tags: online education, online college