Just days before key committees in the U.S. House of Representatives markup their budget reconciliation bills, non-partisan Congressional support agencies released preliminary estimates that translate GOP proposals, including inaction and proposed rules, into potential impact on coverage through Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. These informal estimates will be followed by official ones from the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation in the coming days. The charts below assess and summarize preliminary estimates of how proposals from the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress would drastically reduce both health spending and health coverage.
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Methodology: As of 1pm on May 13, 2025 (one hour before the Committee voting process begins), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued informal cost and coverage impact analyses. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has issued formal cost estimates with Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium savings that are twice as large as the ACA savings from the Energy and Commerce Committee ($219 billion compared to $105 billion from fiscal years 2025 to 2034). We adopt a conservative estimate of the coverage effect of the Ways and Means provisions, assuming that twice the savings yields the same coverage loss as estimated for the Energy and Commerce Committee provision, yielding an additional increase in coverage loss of 1 million people, for a total of 15 million. This is subject to change.
Tags: donald trump, house budget cuts, health care cuts
15 Million Americans Could Lose Health Coverage under Republican Plans
Just days before key committees in the U.S. House of Representatives markup their budget reconciliation bills, non-partisan Congressional support agencies released preliminary estimates that translate GOP proposals, including inaction and proposed rules, into potential impact on coverage through Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. These informal estimates will be followed by official ones from the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation in the coming days. The charts below assess and summarize preliminary estimates of how proposals from the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress would drastically reduce both health spending and health coverage.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Methodology: As of 1pm on May 13, 2025 (one hour before the Committee voting process begins), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued informal cost and coverage impact analyses. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has issued formal cost estimates with Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium savings that are twice as large as the ACA savings from the Energy and Commerce Committee ($219 billion compared to $105 billion from fiscal years 2025 to 2034). We adopt a conservative estimate of the coverage effect of the Ways and Means provisions, assuming that twice the savings yields the same coverage loss as estimated for the Energy and Commerce Committee provision, yielding an additional increase in coverage loss of 1 million people, for a total of 15 million. This is subject to change.
Tags: donald trump, house budget cuts, health care cuts