On May 24, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the House-passed American Health Care Act (AHCA) would cause premiums in the individual market to rise by 20 percent next year. To put CBO’s projected premium increase into perspective, we estimated how much more people in every county could expect to pay under TrumpCare in 2018.1
The map below shows that, for a forty-year-old, Marketplace premiums would increase from $494 in Blanco County, Texas to $2,376 in Yukon-Koyukuk County, Alaska. These amounts would be even higher for older enrollees who, starting in 2018, could be charged as much as five times more than young adults for individual market coverage.
This rate hike may happen even if Congress fails to pass the AHCA. On his first day in office, President Trump signed an executive order to scale back Affordable Care Act (ACA) policies which could have a similar double-digit impact as the ACHA next year. Additionally, President Trump and other administration officials have threatened to stop making payment for cost sharing subsidies should the AHCA not pass Congress. Experts estimate that this, too, would raise premiums in 2018 by an additional 19 percent.
Instead of working to repeal the ACA, Congress and administration should work to implement and improve it. Otherwise, be warned: your Health Insurance Marketplace premiums may soar so long as the partisan pursuit of TrumpCare continues.
Map by Simon Glenn-Gregg
Notes
Estimated increases due to the AHCA were calculated based on the Kaiser Family Foundation data file entitled Tax Credits in 2020 for Single Coverage, available at: http://kff.org/interactive/tax-credits-under-the-affordable-care-act-vs-replacement-proposal-interactive-map/. The estimate total annual unsubsidized Marketplace premium under the Affordable Care Act for 2020 for a 40-year old purchasing a silver plan was deflated to 2017 using the projections for direct purchase spending per enrollee from the National Health Expenditure Accounts. The county-level 2017 premium was then multiplied by the CBO projected increase of 20 percent.
Jeanne Lambrew, PhD, was formerly a senior fellow at The Century Foundation and an adjunct professor at the NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. Her writing, research, and teaching focus on policies to improve health care access, affordability, and quality.
Ellen Montz was a senior fellow at The Century Foundation with expertise in U.S. health care policy, with a specific research focus on health insurance coverage and market regulation. She is currently a PhD candidate in health policy, with a concentration in economics, at Harvard University.
TrumpCare Premium Increases Mapped
On May 24, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the House-passed American Health Care Act (AHCA) would cause premiums in the individual market to rise by 20 percent next year. To put CBO’s projected premium increase into perspective, we estimated how much more people in every county could expect to pay under TrumpCare in 2018.1
The map below shows that, for a forty-year-old, Marketplace premiums would increase from $494 in Blanco County, Texas to $2,376 in Yukon-Koyukuk County, Alaska. These amounts would be even higher for older enrollees who, starting in 2018, could be charged as much as five times more than young adults for individual market coverage.
This rate hike may happen even if Congress fails to pass the AHCA. On his first day in office, President Trump signed an executive order to scale back Affordable Care Act (ACA) policies which could have a similar double-digit impact as the ACHA next year. Additionally, President Trump and other administration officials have threatened to stop making payment for cost sharing subsidies should the AHCA not pass Congress. Experts estimate that this, too, would raise premiums in 2018 by an additional 19 percent.
Instead of working to repeal the ACA, Congress and administration should work to implement and improve it. Otherwise, be warned: your Health Insurance Marketplace premiums may soar so long as the partisan pursuit of TrumpCare continues.
Map by Simon Glenn-Gregg
Notes
Tags: aca, affordable care act, Trump administration, American Health Care Act, ahca