On June 27, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) delayed a vote on the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA), the Senate version of “TrumpCare.” This delay allows a potentially brief window for the public and elected officials to read the bill and understand its implications.

Below are ten charts from analyses conducted by policy experts that illustrate the impact of the Senate bill. Additionally, the table at the end includes links to important analyses conducted to date that estimate the effects of BCRA on costs, coverage, different populations, and the economy.

1. 15 Million More People Would Be Uninsured under TrumpCare in 2018, Climbing to 22 Million by 2026

(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)

2. The Uninsured Rate Would Be Higher under TrumpCare for All Ages and Incomes by 2026

(Congressional Budget Office)

3. TrumpCare Cuts Would Result in 15 Million People Losing Medicaid by 2026

(Congressional Budget Office)

4. TrumpCare Medicaid Cuts Would Deepen Over Time, Forcing Even Greater Coverage and Benefit Reductions


5. Over 200,000 People Could Die From Becoming Uninsured under TrumpCare


6. People Would Pay 74 Percent More for the Same Marketplace Plan under TrumpCare by 2020

(Kaiser Family Foundation)

7. Comparing Apples-to-Apples, Premiums Would Rise by 9 Percent in 2026 under TrumpCare

(Brookings Institution)

8. Out-of-Pocket Costs for Older Americans Would Be At Least $5,000 More under TrumpCare by 2026

(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)

9. Under TrumpCare, Deductibles Would Rise by about $2,500, and Even More for Low-Income Marketplace Enrollees

(Kaiser Family Foundation)

10. TrumpCare Would Cut Health Care Programs to Pay for $563 Billion in Tax Breaks for Corporations and the Wealthy

(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)



Impact of the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA) by the Numbers: Select Studies

Coverage Premiums and Out-Of-Pocket Costs Consumer Protections Budgets and the Economy
22 million more uninsured, 2026 (Congressional Budget Office), by state, 2026 (Center for American Progress), by county, 2018 (The Century Foundation) 74 percent higher premiums for the same silver plan coverage, 2020 (Kaiser Family Foundation), by state including out-of-pocket costs, (Center for American Progress), by county, 2018 (The Century Foundation) 27 million people with employer coverage could be subject to annual or lifetime limits on coverage by state (Center for American Progress) 84 percent cut in Marketplace subsidies and 26 percent cut in federal  Medicaid spending, by state, 2022 (Urban Institute), lowers state credit ratings (Georgetown Center for Children and Families)
13 million adults would lose coverage due to phase out of the Medicaid expansion, along with 2 million children, 283,000 people with disabilities, and 569,000 other adults due to the Medicaid cap, by state, 2022 (Urban Institute) 9 percent increase in Marketplace premiums on a comparable basis, 2026 (Brookings Institution) 21 million could be locked out due to coverage break (Commonwealth Fund) 45 percent of tax benefits go to wealthiest one percent, 2018–2026 (Tax Policy Center)
15 million fewer Medicaid enrollees by 2026 (Congressional Budget Office) Around $5,000 higher premiums for older marketplace enrollees, 2026 (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities) $2 to $45 billion in opioid grant funding is a small fraction of $220 billion, ten-year Medicaid spending on people with opioid use disorder (Center for American Progress) 924,000 jobs lost, 2026 (note: based on House bill; likely to be conservative) (Commonwealth Fund)
Over 200,000 preventable deaths, 2018 to 2026 (Vox), other potential harms to health (NEJM) $2,500 increase in deductibles (Kaiser Family Foundation) 24 to 54 percent cut in Medicaid spending for its enrollees by 2036, causing significant reductions in benefits and coverage (Avalere) 12 percent cut in the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) budget (Trust for America’s Health)