As families hunt for the perfect gift this holiday season, soaring prices are dampening some of the holiday magic. New analysis from Groundwork Collaborative, The Century Foundation, and AFT finds that many of this season’s most popular holiday gifts are significantly more expensive under President Trump, with prices rising an average of 26 percent since last year—nearly nine times the overall inflation rate. No matter what aisle shoppers turn down, they’ll find higher prices: home and kitchen gifts are up 38 percent and electronics are up 34 percent, while clothing, shoes, and accessories are up 20 percent and toys and games are up 17 percent.
New polling from Data for Progress, released alongside the analysis, shows that holiday price hikes are already taking a toll: more than two-thirds of voters are stressed about affording holiday expenses. To cope, more than 40 percent of families are buying fewer gifts, nearly one-third are giving presents to fewer people, and more than one in ten are tapping into savings. Americans know who to blame: nearly three in four voters hold President Trump responsible for rising costs this holiday season—including 44 percent who say they blame the president a lot.
Rising prices this holiday season come amid mounting financial pressure, with forecasts pointing to a roughly 7 percent decrease in holiday spending this year. Many families are already stretched thin, with one in four American households spending 95 percent of their income on basic necessities such as housing, groceries, gas, child care, and utilities. Meanwhile, seasonal retail hiring has fallen 17 percent year-over-year, signaling fewer jobs, smaller paychecks, and even thinner cushions for families facing rising holiday costs. With family budgets squeezed and the job market stalling, holiday shoppers enter the season with consumer sentiment at the second-lowest level on record since 1952.
The High Cost of Holiday Giving
The analysis that follows tracks price changes among seventy popular gift recommendations across all age and gender groups as listed in the Strategist gift guide, published by New York magazine, using prices gathered from Amazon listings for each item in early November 2024 and 2025. The analysis reveals that prices for these popular holiday gifts increased an average of 26 percent compared to last year. For some go-to gifts, the increases are even higher: tea sets are up 55 percent, speakers are up 63 percent, and watches and earrings are up as much as 50 percent.
It’s clear that parents will feel sticker shock this season, no matter what age their children are. For infants, the GUND Animated Kissy Penguin is up 51 percent; for toddlers, the Melissa & Doug Stainless Steel Tea Set is up 55 percent; for school-age kids, the VTech KidiZoom Camera jumped 76 percent this year; and for tweens and teens, Bell + Howell LED color-changing light tape more than doubled in price, increasing by 114 percent.
Table 1
Holiday price hikes have a clear culprit: President Trump’s tumultuous tariffs. With imports making up nearly 90 percent of clothing, more than 80 percent of toys, and about 70 percent of electronics, tariffs are tacking a surcharge onto almost every gift, with the average price of imported goods already 6.7 percentage points above their pre-Liberation Day trend. This holiday season alone, tariffs may add as much as $28 billion to Americans’ shopping bills, or roughly $130 per shopper.
The holiday’s most sought-after electronics now come with an added markup, driven by record-high tariffs on key manufacturing countries such as China, Japan, and Vietnam. For example, Microsoft cited tariffs as the rationale for raising prices on its Xbox console twice this year—including a $70 hike on some consoles. Sony followed suit, hiking prices on the PlayStation 5 by $50 in response to mounting tariff cost pressures. From Beats Solo headphones (up 30 percent) and Sony camcorders (up 35 percent) to VTech KidiZoom cameras (up 77 percent) and Tamagotchi Pix (up 95 percent), electronics for all ages will come with price increases this year.
Apparel and footwear from the top ten U.S. importers now face an average tariff rate of 36 percent, with Trump’s turbulent tariff environment pushing the majority of fashion executives to raise prices. Brands such as Nike and Dr. Martens have already hiked prices, while Levi Strauss has scaled back discount events to protect margins. Prices for Nike socks are up 27 percent, Nike Air Max shoes are up 33 percent, and UGG slippers are up 9 percent this year.
Even decking the halls will cost more this year. Four in five Americans who decorate a Christmas tree will choose an artificial variety, with prices rising as much as 15 percent. Consumers have few ways to avoid the increase: suppliers such as Costco have scaled back inventory by as much as 15 percent, and some popular varieties—like pre-lit artificial trees—have never been produced in the United States, leaving families fully exposed to higher import and supply-chain costs.
Businesses and CEOs confirm the impact of Trump’s sweeping, haphazard trade agenda. At Far Harbor Gaming in Wyoming, Michigan, owner Jesse Graves says prices have risen on nearly every game in his store. Toymakers are sounding the alarm, too, with Mattel, the maker of brands such as American Girl, Hot Wheels, Barbie, and Fisher-Price, and Hasbro, the maker of Monopoly and Nerf, raising prices across product lines, citing tariff costs. As a result, Barbie Boxer and Mermaid dolls will cost families 24 percent and 17 percent more this year than last, respectively.
A Tale of Two Holiday Seasons
New Data for Progress polling shows that most Americans expect it will be harder to afford gifts this year under Trump, while only 11 percent think it will be easier. And over two-thirds say they are stressed about affording holiday expenses, including 67 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of Independents.
Figure 1
A majority of people are taking steps to soften the blow of higher prices by buying fewer gifts (41 percent), giving fewer people gifts (31 percent), hosting smaller gatherings (17 percent), foregoing travel (14 percent), tapping into savings (11 percent), or even skipping the holiday entirely (8 percent).
Figure 2
Moreover, nearly four in five Americans hold President Trump responsible for making the season less affordable for working families. Trump himself acknowledged that his tariffs would be to blame for fewer toys for American children, brushing aside concern about higher prices by saying, “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of thirty dolls.”
Figure 3
The strain of higher prices is falling unevenly, leaving lower- and middle-income Americans with lighter stockings and sparser trees. Lower-income households expect to trim their holiday budget by more than $100 this year, while higher-income households plan to spend about $100 more. These patterns mirror the broader K-shaped divide taking hold in the economy, with the top 10 percent of earners now accounting for nearly half of all U.S. spending.
Retailers are responding to this split, with major retailers such as Target and Walmart—two stores where millions of Americans will do their holiday shopping—acknowledging the widening gap and increasing economic strain on recent earnings calls. Target’s chief commercial officer Richard Gomez noted that “[g]uests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value,” adding that “as we approach the holidays, we know consumers remain cautious.” Walmart’s CFO reported a similar pattern, noting that the company has seen “moderation in spending in the low-income cohort,” consistent with slowing wage growth.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey tells a similar bifurcated story this holiday season. Sentiment has fallen sharply among households making under $75,000, even as it has improved for those earning above $200,000. Higher prices are forcing lower-income households to rely more on credit cards or “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) services this holiday season, with Klarna reporting a 45 percent year-over-year increase from November 1 through Black Friday. Adobe forecasts that Americans will spend over $20 billion this November and December through BNPL services such as Klarna or Affirm, while higher-income consumers, buoyed by a climbing stock market and inflated home prices, will ring in the season with unprecedented spending power.
Unless President Trump puts an end to his chaotic trade wars and his slash-and-burn path through the vital public programs that make sure families can feed and care for themselves and their children, Americans won’t just feel the pinch this December—they will step into a new year with thinner wallets and mounting strain in the checkout aisle.
’Tis the Season for Price Hikes: Popular Holiday Gifts Climb 26 Percent Under Trump
As families hunt for the perfect gift this holiday season, soaring prices are dampening some of the holiday magic. New analysis from Groundwork Collaborative, The Century Foundation, and AFT finds that many of this season’s most popular holiday gifts are significantly more expensive under President Trump, with prices rising an average of 26 percent since last year—nearly nine times the overall inflation rate. No matter what aisle shoppers turn down, they’ll find higher prices: home and kitchen gifts are up 38 percent and electronics are up 34 percent, while clothing, shoes, and accessories are up 20 percent and toys and games are up 17 percent.
New polling from Data for Progress, released alongside the analysis, shows that holiday price hikes are already taking a toll: more than two-thirds of voters are stressed about affording holiday expenses. To cope, more than 40 percent of families are buying fewer gifts, nearly one-third are giving presents to fewer people, and more than one in ten are tapping into savings. Americans know who to blame: nearly three in four voters hold President Trump responsible for rising costs this holiday season—including 44 percent who say they blame the president a lot.
Rising prices this holiday season come amid mounting financial pressure, with forecasts pointing to a roughly 7 percent decrease in holiday spending this year. Many families are already stretched thin, with one in four American households spending 95 percent of their income on basic necessities such as housing, groceries, gas, child care, and utilities. Meanwhile, seasonal retail hiring has fallen 17 percent year-over-year, signaling fewer jobs, smaller paychecks, and even thinner cushions for families facing rising holiday costs. With family budgets squeezed and the job market stalling, holiday shoppers enter the season with consumer sentiment at the second-lowest level on record since 1952.
The High Cost of Holiday Giving
The analysis that follows tracks price changes among seventy popular gift recommendations across all age and gender groups as listed in the Strategist gift guide, published by New York magazine, using prices gathered from Amazon listings for each item in early November 2024 and 2025.1 The analysis reveals that prices for these popular holiday gifts increased an average of 26 percent compared to last year. For some go-to gifts, the increases are even higher: tea sets are up 55 percent, speakers are up 63 percent, and watches and earrings are up as much as 50 percent.
It’s clear that parents will feel sticker shock this season, no matter what age their children are. For infants, the GUND Animated Kissy Penguin is up 51 percent; for toddlers, the Melissa & Doug Stainless Steel Tea Set is up 55 percent; for school-age kids, the VTech KidiZoom Camera jumped 76 percent this year; and for tweens and teens, Bell + Howell LED color-changing light tape more than doubled in price, increasing by 114 percent.
Table 1
Holiday price hikes have a clear culprit: President Trump’s tumultuous tariffs. With imports making up nearly 90 percent of clothing, more than 80 percent of toys, and about 70 percent of electronics, tariffs are tacking a surcharge onto almost every gift, with the average price of imported goods already 6.7 percentage points above their pre-Liberation Day trend. This holiday season alone, tariffs may add as much as $28 billion to Americans’ shopping bills, or roughly $130 per shopper.
The holiday’s most sought-after electronics now come with an added markup, driven by record-high tariffs on key manufacturing countries such as China, Japan, and Vietnam. For example, Microsoft cited tariffs as the rationale for raising prices on its Xbox console twice this year—including a $70 hike on some consoles. Sony followed suit, hiking prices on the PlayStation 5 by $50 in response to mounting tariff cost pressures. From Beats Solo headphones (up 30 percent) and Sony camcorders (up 35 percent) to VTech KidiZoom cameras (up 77 percent) and Tamagotchi Pix (up 95 percent), electronics for all ages will come with price increases this year.
Apparel and footwear from the top ten U.S. importers now face an average tariff rate of 36 percent, with Trump’s turbulent tariff environment pushing the majority of fashion executives to raise prices. Brands such as Nike and Dr. Martens have already hiked prices, while Levi Strauss has scaled back discount events to protect margins. Prices for Nike socks are up 27 percent, Nike Air Max shoes are up 33 percent, and UGG slippers are up 9 percent this year.
Even decking the halls will cost more this year. Four in five Americans who decorate a Christmas tree will choose an artificial variety, with prices rising as much as 15 percent. Consumers have few ways to avoid the increase: suppliers such as Costco have scaled back inventory by as much as 15 percent, and some popular varieties—like pre-lit artificial trees—have never been produced in the United States, leaving families fully exposed to higher import and supply-chain costs.
Businesses and CEOs confirm the impact of Trump’s sweeping, haphazard trade agenda. At Far Harbor Gaming in Wyoming, Michigan, owner Jesse Graves says prices have risen on nearly every game in his store. Toymakers are sounding the alarm, too, with Mattel, the maker of brands such as American Girl, Hot Wheels, Barbie, and Fisher-Price, and Hasbro, the maker of Monopoly and Nerf, raising prices across product lines, citing tariff costs. As a result, Barbie Boxer and Mermaid dolls will cost families 24 percent and 17 percent more this year than last, respectively.
A Tale of Two Holiday Seasons
New Data for Progress polling shows that most Americans expect it will be harder to afford gifts this year under Trump, while only 11 percent think it will be easier. And over two-thirds say they are stressed about affording holiday expenses, including 67 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of Independents.
Figure 1
A majority of people are taking steps to soften the blow of higher prices by buying fewer gifts (41 percent), giving fewer people gifts (31 percent), hosting smaller gatherings (17 percent), foregoing travel (14 percent), tapping into savings (11 percent), or even skipping the holiday entirely (8 percent).
Figure 2
Moreover, nearly four in five Americans hold President Trump responsible for making the season less affordable for working families. Trump himself acknowledged that his tariffs would be to blame for fewer toys for American children, brushing aside concern about higher prices by saying, “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of thirty dolls.”
Figure 3
The strain of higher prices is falling unevenly, leaving lower- and middle-income Americans with lighter stockings and sparser trees. Lower-income households expect to trim their holiday budget by more than $100 this year, while higher-income households plan to spend about $100 more. These patterns mirror the broader K-shaped divide taking hold in the economy, with the top 10 percent of earners now accounting for nearly half of all U.S. spending.
Retailers are responding to this split, with major retailers such as Target and Walmart—two stores where millions of Americans will do their holiday shopping—acknowledging the widening gap and increasing economic strain on recent earnings calls. Target’s chief commercial officer Richard Gomez noted that “[g]uests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value,” adding that “as we approach the holidays, we know consumers remain cautious.” Walmart’s CFO reported a similar pattern, noting that the company has seen “moderation in spending in the low-income cohort,” consistent with slowing wage growth.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey tells a similar bifurcated story this holiday season. Sentiment has fallen sharply among households making under $75,000, even as it has improved for those earning above $200,000. Higher prices are forcing lower-income households to rely more on credit cards or “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) services this holiday season, with Klarna reporting a 45 percent year-over-year increase from November 1 through Black Friday. Adobe forecasts that Americans will spend over $20 billion this November and December through BNPL services such as Klarna or Affirm, while higher-income consumers, buoyed by a climbing stock market and inflated home prices, will ring in the season with unprecedented spending power.
Unless President Trump puts an end to his chaotic trade wars and his slash-and-burn path through the vital public programs that make sure families can feed and care for themselves and their children, Americans won’t just feel the pinch this December—they will step into a new year with thinner wallets and mounting strain in the checkout aisle.
Notes